China's Population Falls Below 1.4 Billion for First Time Since 1990

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that the country's population fell to 1.393 billion at the end of 2025, dropping below the 1.4 billion mark for the first time since 1990. The 7.2 million decline from the previous year represents the steepest annual population drop in China's modern history and has intensified global debate about the economic implications of demographic decline.

Demographic Crisis Deepens

The total fertility rate in China fell to a record low of 0.98 in 2025, well below the replacement level of 2.1 and among the lowest in the world. Despite government incentives including cash bonuses for births, subsidized housing for families with three or more children, and extended parental leave, young Chinese couples continue to delay or forgo having children, citing economic pressures and lifestyle preferences.

The working-age population (15-64 years) has shrunk by 50 million since its peak in 2013, creating acute labor shortages in manufacturing, healthcare, and services. China's old-age dependency ratio is projected to reach 50% by 2050, meaning one working-age person will need to support one elderly person.

"China's demographic trajectory is now essentially irreversible for the next 50 years. This will reshape not just China's economy, but the entire global economic order as the world's factory ages and shrinks," said demographer Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin.

The implications extend far beyond China's borders. India, which surpassed China as the world's most populous nation in 2023, is now the primary beneficiary of the demographic dividend that powered China's economic rise. Global manufacturers are accelerating their diversification to India, Vietnam, and other South Asian countries, a trend that has already led to $45 billion in redirected investment over the past two years.